Behavioral equilibrium and evolutionary dynamics in asset markets

This paper analyzes a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model of an asset market based on behavioral and evolutionary principles. The core of the model is a non-traditional game-theoretic framework combining elements of stochastic dynamic games and evolutionary game theory. Its key characteristic feature is that it relies only on objectively observable market data and does not use hidden individual agents’ characteristics (such as their utilities and beliefs). A central goal of the study is to identify an investment strategy that allows an investor to survive in the market selection process, i.e., to keep with probability one a strictly positive, bounded away from zero share of market wealth over an infinite time horizon, irrespective of the strategies used by the other players. The main results show that under very general assumptions, such a strategy exists, is asymptotically unique and easily computable.     

Game-theoretic foundations of monetary equilibrium

According to theory, money supports trade in a world without enforcement and, in particular, in large societies, where gift-exchange is unsustainable. It is demonstrated that, in fact, monetary equilibrium breaks down in the absence of adequate enforcement institutions and it collapses as societies that lack external enforcement grow large. This unique result is derived by unveiling the existence of a tacit enforcement assumption in the literature that explains the advantages from monetary exchange, and by integrating monetary theory with the theory of repeated games and social norms.     

新型军人养老保险制度的构建及其转轨成本测算

我国现行军人养老保险是军队统筹,且保障范围狭窄、制度衔接不畅、实际养老待遇较低、财政负担过重、基金管理效率低下;为实现养老保险制度全民统筹和切实保障军人的养老权益,应构建社会统筹与个人账户相结合、辅以年金账户的新型军人养老保险制度。军人养老保险制度的转轨成本来源于当前军人养老保险制度下隐性债务的显性化,采用系统动力学模型对军人养老保险制度的转轨成本进行模拟测算,结果表明：截至2090年底转轨成本将全部显性化,“老人”和“中人”的转轨成本都呈先增后减的趋势,2035—2065年的转轨成本最高;借助社会统筹账户资金积累的缓冲和人口年龄与人口结构的变化,能够分散制度转轨带来的财务支付风险,改革不会对政府财政带来巨大压力。因此,应坚持养老保险社会统筹的改革方向,积极推进军人养老保险制度改革。     

旅游市场中的逆向选择和重复博弈——以海南旅游业为例

由于旅游服务产品质量的信息在游客和旅游企业之间的分布是不对称的,这就使得劣质旅游企业对优质旅游企业的逆向淘汰成为可能.本文以海南旅游业为例,分阶段对旅游市场中的逆向选择和重复博弈问题进行了探讨,系统论证了劣质市场均衡出现、维护和强化的条件和成因.     

供应链成员竞合博弈分析

根据博弈论原理,分析供应链成员间的竞合关系,认为在构建供应链的过程中,成员是基于合作博弈来选择合作伙伴的;而形成"双赢"的利益机制是供应链结构变迁和优化的动因,由此提出若干供应链成员合作策略。     

基于GRA-TOPSIS的军校学员基层管理核心能力评估

部队基层管理核心能力是基层管理能力的核心内容,是军校学员必需具备的军事能力。本文利用理想解法与灰色关联度相结合的方法,很好地解决了评估军校学员基层管理核心能力水平生成层次的问题,并为寻找学员基层管理能力弱项提供了方法借鉴。     

浅谈大数据在装备保障中的应用

近两年,大数据在各行业中的应用层出不穷。在今年召开的"两会"上,有关大数据的提案如"井喷",尤其是民建中央的提案直言应将大数据发展上升为国家战略。在国家如此重视大数据应用的情况下,军事领域的应用也将成为必然趋势。在此针对大数据应用于装备保障领域提出一些个人观点,希望对大数据技术在军事上的应用提供一些参考。     

制度、人力资本与乡村劳动力迁移

本文构建制度框架下政府与乡村迁移者博弈模型说明政府政策选择机制形成与迁移者决策过程。在不同经济发展阶段,经济发展目标决定迁移者迁移策略,城市发展能否从迁移中获得利益决定政府对迁移的管制程度,农业发展能否为迁移提供支持决定迁移者的迁移决策。迁移者的人力资本水平是影响政府策略与迁移者策略选择的关键因素。改善乡村劳动力人力资本积累条件有助于加速迁移进程,减少城市劳动力市场对迁移者的歧视,提高城市化质量。     

世界大型事件活动对旅游业的影响及对中国的启示——以历届奥运会和韩国世界杯为例

大型事件旅游活动对举办地具有深远的经济意义和社会意义。以历届奥运会和2002年韩国世界杯足球赛为实例,简要分折世界大型事件活动对举办国旅游业发展的影响及对中国的启示。     

Gradualism in free trade agreements: a theoretical justification

A notable feature of many recent trade agreements is the gradual, rather than immediate, reduction of trade barriers. In this paper we model trade liberalization as a cooperative relationship that evolves gradually in a non-cooperative environment. We show that specialization, capacity irreversibility and the development of trade-partner specific capital increase the benefit of continuing the liberalizing relationship and decrease, over time, the lowest obtainable self-enforcing tariff. By increasing the penalty of future defection, sunk costs ensure that the self-enforcing trading relationship starts slowly, but once in progress the level of cooperation continues to improve.